Cox Automotive Predicts Lower Car Sales
Cox Automotive Predicts Lower Car Sales Worldwide in 2022
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New Car Sales Will Possibly Not Return to Pre-Pandemic Levels in 2022, Predicts Cox Automotive
Brand-new and secondhand vehicle sales may not go back to pre-pandemic stages owing to present headwinds thrashing the car market.
Cox Automotive has lowered its new vehicle development prediction, quoting a 31m new vehicle unit deficit worldwide.
The firm states that even if the Ukraine crisis didn’t happen, they had to lower their prediction for new car development because the supply did not improve, even with reports of automakers achieving leasing orders.
Cox's latest forecast remains at 436,286 towards the end of the second quarter, which is about 10 per cent less year on year.
The firm forecasts the third quarter to conclude at 483,433 registrations – a 22 per cent rise year on year.
In addition, Cox believes the baseline situation for the entire year to conclude on 1.65m registrations – a 0.2 per cent growth year on year but a 13.8 per cent reduction.
The firm presents two other forecasts – an upside state of 1.83m units indicating a 14.1 per cent reduction and a downside forecast of 1.51m units with an 11.3 per cent fall.
Cox Automotive’s insight and strategy director, Philip Nothard, states, "It is looking increasingly likely that the pre-pandemic automotive market we all knew may never return as the sector continues to be hit by headwinds.”
“Whether it is a growing number of manufacturers switching to the agency model or ongoing supply chain disruption, the UK’s automotive sector looks set for short-to-medium-term volatility and may well emerge from this looking completely different to pre-pandemic levels.”
Nothard said their hopes for improved car production with a better supply of semiconductors and raw materials had been ruined due to the Ukraine war.
He stated, “Supply headaches also persist from the long-awaited fulfilment of orders made 12 or even 18 months ago.”
Since the buyers have already booked all the available slots for this year, the backlog will obviously increase, as "new orders won’t turn into actual registrations until at least H2 2022 or even into 2023,” stated Nothard.
Moreover, Nothard revealed that some vehicles being produced presently have to ditch systems like touchscreens, heated seats, and sat-nav devices because of the semiconductor shortage. Of course, car buyers have to compromise on these options due to supply chain issues.
Source and Image: Car Dealer Magazine